Analysis by John Watson
John Watson asssited BWRS with planning the Barrington search exercises around 2003/2004. He produced a number of reports:
- WatsonNov1803 C210 Performance.pdf – Performance of the C210 Cessna aircraft.
- WatsonMar1604 MDXwinds.pdf – Discussion of the winds present.
- WatsonMar1604 Search Planning Doc1.pdf – search planning document used for the 2004 search.
- Watson Dip, MC errors.PDF – background information on aviation magnetic compasses and why an inadvertant turn would cause the magnetic compass to swing.
Don Readford’s VH-MDX Analysis
Don Readford has written an analysis of the VH-MDX case and he concludes the most probable position for the crash site to be on Scattered Top Mountain, on the Eastern side of the Barrington Ranges. The approximate location Readford identifies is shown below:
- Marcello Belcastro recorded this track log with photographs of a search/walk he did in the area based on Don Readford’s search area.
- Glenn Horrocks has written a critical analysis of Readford’s work. It identifies key differences between Readford’s analysis and the BWRS analysis shown above and identifies the key pieces of evidence required to determine if Readford’s scenario is possible.
- Glenn Horrocks performed a stochastic model (similar to above) of Readford’s scenario, using the figures directly from his document (even when they were known to be wrong).
- Glenn Horrocks revised Readford’s scenario to correct known errors and increase the possible error in several key input variables.
- Glenn Horrocks describes why Readford’s analysis cannot be correct. This is based on the analysis by Mark Nolan.